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Wednesday, June 13, 2012
WSJ: Ping Is Dead [Ping]
Climate change to alter global fire risk
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Public release date: 12-Jun-2012[ | E-mail |
Share ] Contact: Sarah Yang
scyang@berkeley.edu
510-643-7741
University of California - Berkeley
Berkeley Climate change is widely expected to disrupt future fire patterns around the world, with some regions, such as the western United States, seeing more frequent fires within the next 30 years, according to a new analysis led by researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, in collaboration with an international team of scientists.
By the end of the century, almost all of North America and most of Europe is projected to see a jump in the frequency of wildfires, primarily because of increasing temperature trends. At the same time, fire activity could actually decrease around equatorial regions, particularly among the tropical rainforests, because of increased rainfall.
The study, published today (Tuesday, June 12) in Ecosphere, an open-access, peer-reviewed journal of the Ecological Society of America, used 16 different climate change models to generate what the researchers said is one of the most comprehensive projections to date of how climate change might affect global fire patterns.
"In the long run, we found what most fear increasing fire activity across large parts of the planet," said study lead author Max Moritz, fire specialist in UC Cooperative Extension. "But the speed and extent to which some of these changes may happen is surprising."
"These abrupt changes in fire patterns not only affect people's livelihoods," Moritz added, "but they add stress to native plants and animals that are already struggling to adapt to habitat loss."
The projections emphasize how important it is for experts in conservation and urban development to include fire in long-term planning and risk analysis, added Moritz, who is based at UC Berkeley's College of Natural Resources.
UC Berkeley researchers worked with an atmospheric scientist from Texas Tech University to combine over a decade of satellite-based fire records with historical climate observations and model simulations of future change. The authors documented gradients between fire-prone and fire-free areas of Earth, and quantified the environmental factors responsible for these patterns. They then used these relationships to simulate how future climate change would drive future fire activity through the coming century as projected by a range of global climate models.
"Most of the previous wildfire projection studies focused on specific regions of the world, or relied upon only a handful of climate models," said study co-author Katharine Hayhoe, associate professor and director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University. "Our study is unique in that we build a forecast for fire based upon consistent projections across 16 different climate models combined with satellite data, which gives a global perspective on recent fire patterns and their relationship to climate."
The fire models in this study are based on climate averages that include mean annual precipitation and mean temperature of the warmest month. These variables tend to control long-term biomass productivity and how flammable that fuel can get during the fire season, the researchers said.
Variables that reflect more ephemeral fluctuations in climate, such as annual rainfall shifts due to El Nio cycles, were not included because they vary over shorter periods of time, and future climate projections are only considered representative for averages over time periods of 20-30 years or longer, the authors said.
The study found that the greatest disagreements among models occur for the next few decades, with uncertainty across more than half the planet about whether fire activity will increase or decrease. However, some areas of the world, such as the western United States, show a high level of agreement in climate models both near-term and long-term, resulting in a stronger conclusion that those regions should brace themselves for more fire.
"When many different models paint the same picture, that gives us confidence that the results of our study reflect a robust fire frequency projection for that region," said Hayhoe. "What is clear is that the choices we are making as a society right now and in the next few decades will determine what Earth's climate will look like over this century and beyond."
Study co-author David Ganz, who was director of forest carbon science at The Nature Conservancy at the time of the study, noted the significance of the findings for populations that rely upon fire-sensitive ecosystems.
"In Southeast Asia alone, there are millions of people that depend on forested ecosystems for their livelihoods," he said. "Knowing how climate and fire interact are important factors that one needs to consider when managing landscapes to maintain these ecosystem goods and services."
The researchers noted that the models they developed focused on fire frequencies, and that linking these to other models of fire intensity and vegetation change are important next steps.
"Our ability to model fire activity is improving," said Moritz, "but a more basic challenge is learning to coexist with fire itself."
###
The Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the U.S. Forest Service, the National Science Foundation and The Nature Conservancy helped support this study.
[ | E-mail | Share ] ?
AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.
Public release date: 12-Jun-2012[ | E-mail |
Share ] Contact: Sarah Yang
scyang@berkeley.edu
510-643-7741
University of California - Berkeley
Berkeley Climate change is widely expected to disrupt future fire patterns around the world, with some regions, such as the western United States, seeing more frequent fires within the next 30 years, according to a new analysis led by researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, in collaboration with an international team of scientists.
By the end of the century, almost all of North America and most of Europe is projected to see a jump in the frequency of wildfires, primarily because of increasing temperature trends. At the same time, fire activity could actually decrease around equatorial regions, particularly among the tropical rainforests, because of increased rainfall.
The study, published today (Tuesday, June 12) in Ecosphere, an open-access, peer-reviewed journal of the Ecological Society of America, used 16 different climate change models to generate what the researchers said is one of the most comprehensive projections to date of how climate change might affect global fire patterns.
"In the long run, we found what most fear increasing fire activity across large parts of the planet," said study lead author Max Moritz, fire specialist in UC Cooperative Extension. "But the speed and extent to which some of these changes may happen is surprising."
"These abrupt changes in fire patterns not only affect people's livelihoods," Moritz added, "but they add stress to native plants and animals that are already struggling to adapt to habitat loss."
The projections emphasize how important it is for experts in conservation and urban development to include fire in long-term planning and risk analysis, added Moritz, who is based at UC Berkeley's College of Natural Resources.
UC Berkeley researchers worked with an atmospheric scientist from Texas Tech University to combine over a decade of satellite-based fire records with historical climate observations and model simulations of future change. The authors documented gradients between fire-prone and fire-free areas of Earth, and quantified the environmental factors responsible for these patterns. They then used these relationships to simulate how future climate change would drive future fire activity through the coming century as projected by a range of global climate models.
"Most of the previous wildfire projection studies focused on specific regions of the world, or relied upon only a handful of climate models," said study co-author Katharine Hayhoe, associate professor and director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University. "Our study is unique in that we build a forecast for fire based upon consistent projections across 16 different climate models combined with satellite data, which gives a global perspective on recent fire patterns and their relationship to climate."
The fire models in this study are based on climate averages that include mean annual precipitation and mean temperature of the warmest month. These variables tend to control long-term biomass productivity and how flammable that fuel can get during the fire season, the researchers said.
Variables that reflect more ephemeral fluctuations in climate, such as annual rainfall shifts due to El Nio cycles, were not included because they vary over shorter periods of time, and future climate projections are only considered representative for averages over time periods of 20-30 years or longer, the authors said.
The study found that the greatest disagreements among models occur for the next few decades, with uncertainty across more than half the planet about whether fire activity will increase or decrease. However, some areas of the world, such as the western United States, show a high level of agreement in climate models both near-term and long-term, resulting in a stronger conclusion that those regions should brace themselves for more fire.
"When many different models paint the same picture, that gives us confidence that the results of our study reflect a robust fire frequency projection for that region," said Hayhoe. "What is clear is that the choices we are making as a society right now and in the next few decades will determine what Earth's climate will look like over this century and beyond."
Study co-author David Ganz, who was director of forest carbon science at The Nature Conservancy at the time of the study, noted the significance of the findings for populations that rely upon fire-sensitive ecosystems.
"In Southeast Asia alone, there are millions of people that depend on forested ecosystems for their livelihoods," he said. "Knowing how climate and fire interact are important factors that one needs to consider when managing landscapes to maintain these ecosystem goods and services."
The researchers noted that the models they developed focused on fire frequencies, and that linking these to other models of fire intensity and vegetation change are important next steps.
"Our ability to model fire activity is improving," said Moritz, "but a more basic challenge is learning to coexist with fire itself."
###
The Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the U.S. Forest Service, the National Science Foundation and The Nature Conservancy helped support this study.
[ | E-mail | Share ] ?
AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.
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Tuesday, June 12, 2012
How Findable is Your Business? | Marketing Matters
Being ?Findable? means a business is visible to consumers where and when they?re ready to buy. It also means being found first in their category, before competitors. For local businesses, this used to be a fairly simple process?run ads in the local newspaper or Yellow Pages, and then rely on customer referrals. But times have changed.
Today?s consumers are different. Nowadays, consumers use an average of nearly eight different media tools to research local purchases before they buy.1 In addition to perusing proven media like print ads and directories, many consumers now rely heavily on the web. In fact, nearly 70 percent of consumers start their local business searches online.2 And that includes mobile, where more than 40 percent of mobile phone users search for information on their phones.
Challenges. Local businesses need to develop a coordinated offline and online marketing program in order to reach across the myriad of ways today?s digitally savvy and mobile buyers search and shop. For many small business owners, this can present some tough challenges due to:
??Limited time and resources to implement marketing programs
??Limited marketing knowledge
??Knowing the most effective places to start, and
??Maximizing their return on investment.
An important step toward addressing these challenges for local businesses is identifying key marketing components that have the most impact on being findable.
The Five Factors of Being Findable. There are five key marketing components or factors that help identify how findable a business is to consumers. The degree at which a local business is engaged in each factor plays an important role in determining their overall visibility. The five factors of being findable are:
??Brand
??Physical Location
??Advertising
??Online Presence
??Reputation & Community.
Brand. A company?s brand is its unique identity?including its name, logo, colors, tagline and more?that helps to distinguish it from others. Companies with strong brands attract prospects, bring back customers, and create a powerful advantage in the local market versus lesser known competitors. By sending a consistent brand message across varying media, a business can build its brand awareness and increase its chances of standing out to consumers. That way, when the customer is ready to buy, that business is automatically top of mind.
Physical Location. A company?s tangible presence in the market is more than just its store front and a big sign above the door. It includes everything from company vehicles to sign spinners to delivery uniforms with logos. They are all a way of extending the reach of your physical presence beyond the bricks and mortar of your establishment and increasing your visibility. Of course, for most businesses, it?s important to have a good location in a high traffic area and clear signage promoting business hours, website and special offers. But to grow and thrive in today?s crowded and competitive marketplace, companies need to proactively promote their location when and where consumers look for them.
Advertising. Most entrepreneurs understand that advertising is a company?s voice. It is the process of communicating to prospects what is unique about their business, product or services. Advertising makes up a single component of the marketing process and uses the right mix of traditional advertising and newer online vehicles to ensure the right message is delivered to the right prospects at the right time. Local businesses need to cross-promote using multiple touch points across different forms of media to effectively be seen by and reach today?s consumers.
Online Presence. Online marketing can open up a huge new audience of potential customers. But building a strong online presence means more than just putting up a website. It entails optimizing Web pages for search engines (SEO), paying for Search Engine Marketing (SEM) to dominate results pages, a business Facebook? page, a Twitter? handle, digital directories, listings, mobile applications and more. And considering new research that shows how consumers are searching for information these days, being found online by consumers can be critical to the long-term success of almost any company.
Reputation & Community. Consumers generate word of mouth about the companies they have experiences with online and offline every day. Local businesses that listen to their customers benefit by not only understanding how people feel about them, but they have the opportunity to guide the conversation rather than react to it. Through social media, blogs, review sites and more, local businesses can help manage their reputation and interaction with online communities. Being involved in the local community offline through sponsorships, memberships, charities and other ways is equally important in promoting findability, goodwill and brand loyalty.
Small businesses face long odds to survive. According to the Small Business Administration, only 70 percent of small to medium-sized business employers survive at least two years, half at least five years, a third at least 10 years, and a quarter stay in business 15 years or more.1 The most important success factor for almost every small business is getting found. So it?s critical that local businesses take steps to increase visibility across multiple channels. By understanding how the five factors of being findable help identify and optimize marketing efforts, local businesses can begin developing marketing programs that reach today?s consumers when and how they are searching for the products and services they need.
How Findable Are You?? Test your visibility in each of the five factors right now for free. Take a couple minutes and get your Findability Score by answering five simple questions about your business. Learn where you stand and how easy it is for consumers to find you today. Discover what you need to focus on to improve your flow of customers and get advice on ways of improving your business?s visibility.
1 ? Source: Kelsey Group, 2010
2 ? Source: Small Business Administration, January 2011?
?????????????????
Dex One provides a full range of marketing solutions for local businesses, including online and print directories, website development and mobile solutions, search engine marketing, video production and reputation management. Call us at 1-855-566-7026 or get started here.
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Quora: Is it Healthy to Get Massages Regularly?
This question originally appeared on Quora.
By Kate Simmons, Myofascial Pain Specialist
There are many physiological benefits from massage, but I will list the main effects on the body:
1. Muscular system:
When you reflect that the muscles constitute one half of the bulk of the body and receive one fourth of all the blood supply of the body, you realize that any procedure which acts directly on them must have a decided influence on the whole body.
When properly administered, massage produces a suction or pumping effect, pressing forward the contents of the veinous and lymph channels, creating a vacuum to be filled by a fresh supply of fluid derived from the capillaries. Plainly speaking, massage (specifically flushing techniques such as friction and manual lymphatic drainage) refreshes the supply of oxygenated blood to the tissues it acts upon, clearing painful chemicals such as bradykinin, histamine and substance P, lactic acid, eicosanoids, nitric oxide, adenosine, cytokines, and others [1]. This, simply put, removes the source(s) of pain and increases comfort and proper function (including strength and endurance) through relaxation of the muscular fibers and better circulation within them.
2. Skeletal and ligamentous:
Massage can influence harder structures such as bones and ligaments (the connective tissue structures attaching bone to bone). Bones have essentially the same blood supply as their overlying muscles.The blood vessels's and lymphatics's flows are largest (peripherally) in the vicinity of the joints. The change of fluids affected by joint movements resulting from the action of the muscles upon the bones necessarily produces an increase in the nutrition to these areas, which then assists increased growth in the ligaments and other structures of the joints [2].
3. Circulatory:
General massage increases the rate and force of the heart beat, as does exercise, with the difference that it does not raise arterial tension or stimulate the neuromuscular junction as does active exercise, and it does not accelerate the heart to the same degree, though it produces a full strong pulse. This is due in part to the influence of massage mainly affecting peripheral circulation. Friction (rubbing techniques) acts mainly on superficial veins, while deep kneading (deep tissue and rolfing techniques, etc.) act on deeper vessels also. The effects of massage are marked in lymphatic vessels as well. Lymph vessels drain the tissues of waste and toxic substances. They are most abundant in subcutaneous tissue and in the fascia that coat and lie in between muscles. These vessels are mechanically affected (flushed) with friction and kneading techniques [3].
4. Respiratory:
Massage, as in exercise, increases the depth of the respiratory movements. This is in some measure due to the parasympathetic reflexive influence of massage, but it is also be attributed in part to its effect in bringing the circulation waste products requiring elimination through the lungs, and increasing oxidation, or CO2 production, which necessarily accompanies the increased heat production resulting from the effect of massage on the muscles (from friction and increased muscluar metabolism). Massage is an efficient means of positively affecting tissue metabolism, by which oxygen is absorbed by the tissues and CO2 taken up by the veinous blood. This process takes place chiefly in the muscles through oxidation of glycogen, of which they contain one-half of the bodily store [4].
There are also psychological benefits to getting a massage, mainly relaxation and peaceful frame of mind. Some of this can be attributed to the aforementioned benefits. There is also the simple act of releasing tension and allowing the body and mind to "let go," relax, and breathe.
There are many specific applications of manual therapy to achieve certain physiological goals, such as manual lymphatic drainage to affect local swelling versus deep tissue massage, Active Release, Thai massage or Rolfing to break up fascial/tendinous adhesions, versus trigger point therapy or myofascial release to address specific types of tension within specific muscles or myotatic groups.? Each technique has its functional directives.? Many different disciplines of medicine utilize massage/manual therapeutic techniques to achieve certain goals. These get more specific with advanced techniques.
There are several contraindications to massage (states in which massage is inadviseable and possibly harmful):
1. Significant fever: the body is already under siege from infection or inflammation; massage is only going to increase the problem, not help.
2. Uncontrolled infection: again, the body is already overloaded trying to attack the invading/inflaming organism. Massage will only add an additional overload and complication, most likely making symptoms worse. Wait until the infection is identified and eradicated before having a massage.
3. Recent severe injury or surgery: there are advanced techniques such as manual lymphatic drainage and craniosacral therapy that can help control initial swelling and inflammation, but general massage would overload the body's capacity to respond favorably in such a compromised state.
Resources:
[1] "Essentials of Pain Medicine, 3d Edition"; Elsevier, 2011; Benzon, Raja, Liu, Fishman, C
[2-4] "Art of Massage", Health Research, 1975; Kellogg, MD, pgs. 23-31.
More questions on health and wellness:
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Monday, June 11, 2012
Boy & Bear rock the Empire | Toowoomba Music | Music Reviews ...
Boy & Bear play to a packed house at the Empire Theatre.
Laura Hunt
BOY & Bear got the welcome they deserved Sunday night when they played to a packed house at the Empire Theatre.
The venue's significance wasn't lost on the band, who followed strong support acts Tim Sparrow and The Jungle Giants.
"I hope you don't get offended when I call you 'regional', but not all the regional places we play look like this," singer Dave Hosking said.
"This is beautiful."
It was the first time the band had graced a Toowoomba stage and following their stellar 90-minute performance, hopefully won't be their last.
They pumped out the crowd favourites, including Feeding Line, Milk and Sticks and Part Time Believer, but it was their infamous cover of a Crowded House classic that was the real standout.
Fall at your feet, played midway through the set, was given a Neil Young makeover with a few bars of Heart of Gold played midway through.
And while drummer Tim Hart spoke about the perils of "gold star stickers that always fold up at the corners" in between songs, the audience were treated to two new songs from the boys including Three-headed woman.
If the new material is any indication of what's to come, Boy & Bear fans should be excited.
Prior to their Toowoomba show, guitarist Killian Gavin said the rest of this year would be spent on tour and writing new material.
"We'll be back overseas for festivals, and then keep working on album number two," he said.
It was definitely a gold star performance by one of Australia's best local acts.
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Undoing health law could have messy ripple effects
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - The battleship USS Iowa, a storied vessel that served during World War Two and the Cold War, made a brief final voyage on Saturday to its permanent berth at the Port of Los Angeles, where it will open as a naval museum next month. Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and U.S. Navy veterans who??
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