Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Ilias Papageorgiadis' blog | Romanian Green Energy Investment ...

In terms of investing in Romania, the years 2012 and 2013 can be easily compared to the 2006-2007 period. Back then the hype was about investments in Real Estate, now it is all about renewable energy. Although investments in Green Energy are based on real incomes and are not expected to become a bubble (as it happened for a large number of real estate investments), there are four useful lessons that we can draw from the previous Romanian ?golden investment era?.

4 mistakes of Romanian Real Estate investments in the 2007-2008 era

Aside from the inflated prices and the economic crisis that started at the end of 2008, Real Estate investors made the following four mistakes while investing in Romania:

1.?????? Only considered the (very) optimistic scenario without undertaking a serious and informed sensitivity analysis of the investment strategy.

2.?????? Did not make a careful and thorough evaluation down to the very last detail related to the investment.

3.?????? Believed that ?in Romania you can make easy money, without too much work?.

4.?????? Chose partners who were not real professionals.

In 2012 when listening to someone complain about his/her Real Estate investments in Romania, you will usually find that the investments were handled by:

????????? ?Country managers? who were initially the translators, always ready to agree with the boss and promise everything he wanted to hear.

????????? ?Trustworthy Persons? who were simple amateurs, not results oriented people, who also changed their behavior and attitude according to how quickly they could get their pockets filled with money.

????????? ?Local connections? that in fact were ordinary people who were able to tell nice stories. After receiving some money for their service (often expected service) they quickly disappeared before delivery.

Learning from the mistakes of the past

Romania is the newest market for renewable energy in the European Union, with a modern subvention scheme and the next 2-3 year investment horizon appears highly promising. But as with all new markets, investors need to be careful. The main investment rules are always valid. Romanian Green Energy requires having a clear strategy, following a professional approach and being determined. There are four issues that every Green Energy investor in Romania should be aware of and follow:

1. Not every ?turn-key? project is ready to? turn the key

Looking at the market today you will find a very high proportion of projects advertised as ?turn-key?, are nowhere near being ready. Usually a good ?turn-key? project has feasible parameters, is ready to be built or requires the final payment in order to reach this status.

An example illustrating this point is a number of wind ?turn-key? projects that I came across, which do not have any official wind measurements (!).

2. Business plans should be defensive

By analyzing the subvention scheme in Romania, I have reached the conclusion that we may have 3 possible scenarios for our business plan:

The negative, the average and the positive one. I insist in asking the investors to base their decisions using the negative and average prediction of the sensitivity analysis. If you are advised to follow the positive approach you should, at least, be worried.

3. Team of professionals by your side

All successful investors in the green energy sector collaborate with professionals only. From consultants to equipment providers, investors that want to be successful need to select serious partners who will support them at every step of the investment procedure and if necessary, afterwards. Never forget the Romanian Real Estate mistake of collaborating with ?obedient, low cost amateurs? that caused huge damages to the investors.

4. Be ready for lots of work and extra effort

There are many opportunities to do lucrative business in Romania but it is also a place where you have to work hard in order to achieve your targets and this applies to investments in green energy too.

Every step during the investment process needs double-checking; the contracts require thorough verification; due diligence should not be fast; implementation might last a bit longer; operation and maintenance might cost a bit more.? This is why I always reduce the IRR that appears at my excel (but it?s still very attractive).

Overall, the winners of the Romanian ?green? race will be the ones who have a clear and well-balanced investment strategy and business plan, taking into consideration the sensitivity of the project to different market conditions.

Winning investors should use professional experts that will support them through every step of the process. It is not about being the fastest in your investment, it is about being effective and efficient in the long term

The choice is yours.


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